| Date | Event | Analyst forecasts and comments |
|---|
| | Chemicals & Petrochemicals | |
|
from 18.08.2008 to 31.08.2008
|
Publication by Uralkali of 1H 2008 financial results to IFRS
|
We expect significant improvements in the company’s financials amid favorable price trends on the potash fertilizer market and production expansion at the company. Due to the slow growth of its expenses, the company may enjoy the fattest profit margins in the industry. |
|
from 01.09.2008 to 15.09.2008
|
Publication by Acron of 1H 2008 financial results to IFRS |
We forecast the company to achieve spectacular growth in its financial indices. Revenue is forecast to jump by 80% and the net margin should more than double. Price increases on mineral fertilizers, the company’s core product, on global markets, coupled with the slow growth in its costs and expansion of production could emerge as key upside drivers for the company’s financials.
|
|
10.09.2008
|
Hearings in a claim to deprivatize a 20% stake in Apatit |
If a stake in Apatit is bought by the state, PhosAgro’s control over the company will weaken. This will be favorable for Akron, which will attempt to soften the terms of the agreement on apatite concentrate supplies. |
| | Consumer | |
|
from 15.09.2008 to 20.09.2008
|
Publication of Dixy Group's revenue results for August 2008 and 8M 2008
|
We expect the company's 8M 2008 revenue to grow by 48% y-o-y in US dollar terms due to an upturn in LFL sales and an increase in the number of its retail outlets.
|
| | Engineering | |
|
from 03.09.2008 to 30.09.2008
|
Publication of consolidated IFRS financials by Sollers (Severstal-Avto) |
We expect the company’s revenue to advance by 50% y-o-y. Margins are likely to drop due to the opening of new dealerships. |
|
05.09.2008
|
AvtoVAZ EGM. Shareholders will consider adding a new article to the company’s charter allocating 10% of AvtoVAZ net profit to the payment of preferred dividends. |
The introduction of this article to the company’s charter should have a positive impact on AvtoVAZ preferred shares. During the last few years, the company’s has paid quite low dividends. In 2007, AvtoVAZ allocated USD 22.7 mn, or RUB 536.1 mn for dividends, which equals 13.6% of the company’s net profit. Of this amount, 25% was allocated for preferred dividends, which amounts to 3.4% of AvtoVAZ net profit. The dividend yield as of the cutoff date was 2%. An increase in dividend payments to 10% of net profit may triple the dividend yield of preferred shares. |
|
from 20.09.2008 to 10.10.2008
|
GAZ Group to release its IFRS report |
In line with our projections, GAZ Group’s revenue in 1H 2008 will grow by 15-20%. However, we are still largely uncertain about the company’s margins, which could be negatively affected by high resource prices. Nonetheless, thanks to the factors that limit the upturn in expenditures, such as steel supply contracts and an upturn in product prices, the company should withstand the downturn in margins.
|
| | Financial sector | |
|
28.08.2008
|
Publication of 6M 2008 IFRS report by Vozrozhdenie Bank
|
We expect the bank's strong margin indicators to be preserved thanks to its efficient development strategy. The bank's continued ability to increase its assets at a high rate will be another important upside driver. In line with management projections, the bank's assets will rise by 30-35% in 2008. In 1Q 08, Vozrozhdenie raised its total assets by just 5%.
|
|
from 01.09.2008 to 15.09.2008
|
Publication of 6M 2008 IFRS report by Bank Saint Petersburg |
We expect the bank to preserve the quick upturn in its asset portfolio, which should grow by 60% in 2008 according to management projections. In line with our expectations, the bank's margins should also be maintained at a high level, but slightly lower than in FY 2007. The bank holds strong positions in the North Western region of Russia, which helps it develop successfully amid the negative environment of the global financial markets. |
|
from 01.10.2008 to 15.10.2008
|
Publication of 1H 2008 IFRS report by VTB |
We expect the bank to gradually increase its capital utilization productivity. Therefore, the bank's margins should rise. VTB's status as the second state bank should enable it to improve its business operations and raise its market share.
|
|
20.10.2008
|
Publication of 1H 2008 IFRS report by Sberbank |
The ability to maintain the structure of its liabilities at a stable level, and the ability to attract long-term borrowing funds more efficiently, will be critically important for the bank. The domestic demand for key credit products remains high, and as such, it is necessary to provide financing, maintain a stable structure of liabilities and avoid sharp increases in the share of short-term funding sources. The bank’s financial report should also demonstrate the management’s ability to exercise efficient control over operating expenses amid inflationary pressure. We expect the bank to preserve its margins at a level close to the 1Q results. |
| | Metals | |
|
03.09.2008
|
Publication of Severstal’s 2Q 2008 IFRS results |
Based on the latest operational data, we expect Severstal’s revenue for 2Q 08 at around USD 6 bn. The highest growth in annual terms is likely to be shown by the value-added goods segment and the rolled-iron segment. Additionally, Severstal’s revenues should rise due to the consolidation of acquired assets, including Sparrows Point. |
| | Power Utilities | |
|
09.09.2008
|
The last day of the validity of a Lukoil offer to buy out TGK-8 shares |
At present, the RUB 0.0398 share price indicated in the buyout offer serves as a level of support for TGK-8 shares. It is highly likely that quotations for the shares may decline once the offer expires. |
|
11.09.2008
|
Hearings at a Rosneft lawsuit against TGK-11 over its ‘technical’ additional share issue |
The Neft-Aktiv lawsuit against TGK-11 prevented the genco from being spun off from UES under a standard scheme: via a takeover of TGK-11 Holding, an intermediary structure. A court decision on the case will clarify when UES shareholders will be able to get shares in TGK-11. |
|
17.09.2008
|
September 17: the courts will consider appeals under Neft Aktiv’s lawsuits against trunk grid companies. |
Neft Aktiv said earlier that it was considering the possibility of signing an amicable agreement on its claims against trunk grid companies: this is the most likely development. |
|
18.09.2008
|
Publication of 1H 2008 report by Mosenergo |
We expect a decline in the company’s financials due to the unfavorable external environment. |
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